# Farm and Ag Business Cash Flow After Harvest: Costs Are Up 4.5% in 2026. Here's How to Plan

Published: 2026-11-01 · By Deliver Funding · https://deliverfunding.com/blog/farm-ag-business-cash-flow-after-harvest
Industry: Agriculture · Topics: agriculture business funding, farm cash flow, ag business working capital, post-harvest cash flow, farm input costs 2026, merchant cash advance

> USDA projects farm production expenses of $492.8 billion in 2026, up 4.5%, with fuel up 28.8% and fertilizer up 15.3%. A practical post-harvest cash flow plan for farms and ag businesses, plus when working capital fits and when it doesn't.

## Key points

- USDA's September 2026 forecast puts farm production expenses at $492.8 billion for 2026, up $21.2 billion (4.5%) from 2025, as reported by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
- The biggest jumps: fuel and oil up 28.8% and fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner up 15.3%. Net farm income is projected to slip 2.6% to $158.4 billion.
- Farm debt is forecast at a record $605.1 billion. Margins, not just revenue, are the story this fall.
- After harvest, map the months between your last big check and spring inputs. For crop-year financing, ag lenders and USDA programs are usually the cheapest first stop.

Farm and ag business costs are climbing faster than income this year: USDA projects 2026 production expenses of **$492.8 billion, up 4.5%**, while net farm income slips 2.6%. The fix after harvest is a month-by-month cash plan that covers the long stretch between your last big check and spring inputs, with financing lined up before you need it.

## What's squeezing farm and ag cash flow in 2026?

**Costs are rising faster than revenue.** According to the [American Farm Bureau Federation's read of USDA's September 2026 forecast](https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/usda-revises-farm-income-higher-but-costs-still-bite), total production expenses are projected at **$492.8 billion in 2026, up $21.2 billion from 2025.** The steepest increases are in the inputs you can't skip:

| Expense (2026 vs. 2025) | Projected 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel and oil | $21.6 billion | +28.8% |
| Fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner | $39.6 billion | +15.3% |
| Livestock and poultry purchases | $71.9 billion | +11.4% |
| Marketing, storage and transportation | n/a | about +12% |
| Interest expenses | n/a | about +2.8% |

*Source: AFBF, citing USDA ERS, Sept. 3, 2026.*

**Income is softer, and mixed by sector.** USDA projects net farm income of **$158.4 billion, down 2.6%** from 2025 (about 5.5% after inflation). [Farm Policy News](https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2026/09/usdas-2026-farm-income-outlook-improves-but-expenses-sharply-higher/) notes crop receipts are projected up 6.1%, with corn up 11.3% and soybeans up 10%, while total animal product receipts are projected down 5.4%. Farm debt is forecast at a record **$605.1 billion**.

That matters beyond the farm gate. Feed and farm supply stores, equipment dealers and repair shops, custom harvesters, haulers, nurseries and farm markets all feel it when growers delay purchases or stretch payments.

## A post-harvest cash flow plan

### 1. Map November through April, month by month

Harvest checks can make the fall balance look healthy. Write down every expected payment from now to spring planting: land rent, equipment payments, insurance, property taxes, wages, utilities and early input orders. Then list deposits you're confident in, not hoping for. The lowest month on that list is your real number.

### 2. Price spring inputs early, and ask about terms

With fertilizer and fuel up sharply, prepay and early-order discounts are worth comparing against what that cash would cover in February. Many input dealers offer seasonal terms or financing programs. Ask what's available before you write the check.

### 3. Decide your marketing plan before cash forces it

If you're holding grain, know how many months of bills your storage decision has to carry. Selling because the account is empty is rarely the best price. Set a cash floor that triggers a sale, a draw on your operating line, or both.

### 4. Ag businesses: watch receivables now

If you sell to farmers, expect slower pay this winter. Send invoices promptly, confirm terms in writing and follow up on anything past 30 days before year-end. Offering ACH or card payment helps.

### 5. Plan equipment decisions with your tax pro

Equipment purchased and placed in service by Dec. 31 may affect your 2026 return. Buy what pays for itself, not only for the deduction, and talk to your CPA first.

## Where does working capital fit, and where doesn't it?

**Start with the cheapest money.** For a crop-year operating need, an operating line from your ag lender or Farm Credit institution, a [USDA Farm Service Agency](https://www.fsa.usda.gov/) loan, or input-dealer financing will usually cost less than short-term funding.

**Short-term working capital fits a fast, specific payback.** It works best for an ag business with steady monthly deposits and a clear return. An illustrative example, not a quote: a farm equipment repair shop takes a **$40,000 merchant cash advance at a 1.28 factor** to stock parts and add a technician ahead of the winter rebuild season. Total remitted is $51,200, so the cost is $11,200. At about $512 per business day, it's remitted in roughly 100 business days.

That can make sense if the extra rebuild work brings in well over $11,200 in gross profit during that stretch. It's the wrong fit for a grain farm paid once a year, for covering ongoing losses, or on top of an advance you already have.

## How Deliver Funding helps

We help ag-related businesses and owners in every industry compare working capital options from **$10,000 to $5,000,000**. All credit types are considered, pre-approval doesn't use a hard credit pull, decisions can come in as little as 24 hours, and funding often follows within 24 to 48 hours of approval, with same-day funding available in many cases. If a merchant cash advance isn't right for your operation, we'll say so.

Typical minimums: about 6 months in business, about $10,000 a month in revenue, an active business bank account and your last 3 months of business bank statements.

We Deliver Funding When You Need It. [See your options](https://deliverfunding.com/?utm_source=blog&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=farm-ag-business-cash-flow-after-harvest) or call **(888) 974-0522** (Mon–Fri, 9am–6pm ET).

*A merchant cash advance is not a loan. Funding terms vary, and approval and amounts depend on business qualifications. This article is for general information and isn't financial, legal or tax advice.*

## Frequently asked questions

### How much are farm production costs rising in 2026?

USDA's September 2026 farm income forecast, as summarized by the American Farm Bureau Federation, projects total production expenses of $492.8 billion in 2026, up $21.2 billion or 4.5% from 2025. Fuel and oil are projected up 28.8% and fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner up 15.3%.

### Is farm income up or down in 2026?

USDA projects net farm income of $158.4 billion in 2026, down $4.3 billion or 2.6% from about $162.7 billion in 2025. Adjusted for inflation, the decline is about 5.5%. Crop receipts are projected up 6.1% while animal product receipts are projected down 5.4%.

### Can a farm or ag business get a merchant cash advance?

Ag-related businesses with steady monthly deposits, such as farm supply stores, equipment repair shops, custom harvesting and hauling outfits, nurseries and farm markets, can qualify. Typical minimums are about 6 months in business, about $10,000 a month in revenue and a business bank account. A farm that gets paid once or twice a year is usually a poor fit, because remittances come out of ongoing deposits.

### Is a merchant cash advance a loan?

No. A merchant cash advance is the purchase of a portion of your future receivables, paid back as a share of deposits or a fixed daily or weekly amount. It is not a loan, and terms vary by funder and business.

### What's usually the cheapest way to finance spring inputs?

For most farms, an operating line from an ag lender or Farm Credit institution, a USDA Farm Service Agency operating loan, or supplier and input-dealer programs will cost less than short-term working capital. Short-term funding fits best for a specific, fast payback, not a full crop year.

## Sources

- [American Farm Bureau Federation, 'USDA Revises Farm Income Higher, but Costs Still Bite', Sept. 3, 2026 (citing USDA ERS September 2026 farm income forecast)](https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/usda-revises-farm-income-higher-but-costs-still-bite)
- [Farm Policy News (University of Illinois), 'USDA's 2026 Farm Income Outlook Improves, but Expenses Sharply Higher', Sept. 4, 2026](https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2026/09/usdas-2026-farm-income-outlook-improves-but-expenses-sharply-higher/)
- [USDA Economic Research Service, Farm Sector Income Forecast](https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/highlights-from-the-farm-income-forecast)

## Next step

Apply: https://deliverfunding.com/apply (agents: see https://deliverfunding.com/apply.md) · Call (888) 974-0522 · Email info@deliverfunding.com